Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 0.023848 0.027108 0.030665 0.034836 0.039596 0.044862 0.051136
2025-02-23 0.018581 0.022996 0.028246 0.034962 0.043340 0.053471 0.066684
2025-03-02 0.015457 0.020253 0.026298 0.034499 0.045370 0.059335 0.078720
2025-03-09 0.013696 0.018805 0.025558 0.035176 0.048579 0.066685 0.093155
2025-03-16 0.012020 0.017177 0.024280 0.034826 0.050171 0.071823 0.104931
2025-03-23 0.011112 0.016464 0.024113 0.035905 0.053752 0.079950 0.121692
2025-03-30 0.009772 0.014950 0.022597 0.034792 0.053905 0.082975 0.131033
2025-04-06 0.008809 0.013883 0.021608 0.034317 0.054899 0.087255 0.142626
2025-04-13 0.007803 0.012637 0.020205 0.033021 0.054409 0.089075 0.150328
2025-04-20 0.007432 0.012361 0.020292 0.034108 0.057856 0.097522 0.169857
2025-04-27 0.007055 0.012033 0.020251 0.034955 0.060949 0.105623 0.189570
2025-05-04 0.006755 0.011801 0.020341 0.036015 0.064481 0.114766 0.212030
2025-05-11 0.006250 0.011179 0.019724 0.035807 0.065796 0.120221 0.228539
2025-05-18 0.005853 0.010712 0.019338 0.035980 0.067828 0.127187 0.248699
2025-05-25 0.005403 0.010106 0.018643 0.035500 0.068566 0.131764 0.264644
2025-06-01 0.005158 0.009856 0.018576 0.036198 0.071618 0.141041 0.290952
2025-06-08 0.004800 0.009358 0.017997 0.035837 0.072531 0.146167 0.309232
2025-06-15 0.004649 0.009250 0.018153 0.036949 0.076517 0.157848 0.342612
2025-06-22 0.004258 0.008627 0.017245 0.035802 0.075699 0.159504 0.354357
2025-06-29 0.003972 0.008195 0.016680 0.035313 0.076216 0.164001 0.372858
2025-07-06 0.003628 0.007612 0.015757 0.033978 0.074767 0.164097 0.381294
2025-07-13 0.003543 0.007570 0.015959 0.035098 0.078848 0.176770 0.420477
2025-07-20 0.003441 0.007480 0.016048 0.035971 0.082451 0.188697 0.459187